San Francisco Giants
57-81 · 4th in NL West, 25.5 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Logan Webb · Command specialist
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
67-71 · 4th in NL Central, 18 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Paul Skenes · Elite strikeout stuff
Team Identity
San Francisco Giants
Season-to-date, 137 games, 5,244 PA.
A power-hitting, opportunistic offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be free-swinging. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg73
ContactAbove Avg67
Plate DisciplineWell Below18
SpeedBelow Avg39
RISPAbove Avg72
Recent FormTrending Down
Hit rate is down 8% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Season-to-date, 138 games, 5,560 PA.
An aggressive, opportunistic offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage46
ContactAverage62
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg70
SpeedAbove Avg83
RISPAbove Avg77
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 21% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Pirates bring the more aggressive profile, while Giants lean on being power-hitting.
Swing Factor
Paul Skenes strikes hitters out at a 28.8% clip (91st percentile); Giants carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Giants are trending down and Pirates are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Paul Skenes miss enough bats?
Paul Skenes strikes hitters out at a 28.8% clip (91st percentile); Giants carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · GiantsPaul Skenes: 28.8% K rateGiants: 20.8% K rateHigh confidence
Can Paul Skenes command the strike zone?
Giants walk in 7.0% of trips; Paul Skenes allows walks sparingly (6.8%).
Edge · Paul SkenesGiants: 7.0% walk ratePaul Skenes: 6.8% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Logan Webb miss enough bats?
Logan Webb strikes hitters out at a 18.9% clip (31st percentile); Pirates carry a 23.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · PiratesLogan Webb: 18.9% K ratePirates: 23.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Logan Webb limit Pirates' power?
Pirates rank in the 46th percentile in extra-base production, while Logan Webb sits in the 66th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Logan WebbPirates: 0.345 TB/PALogan Webb: 0.302 TB/PA allowed (625 PA)High confidence
Can Logan Webb command the strike zone?
Pirates walk in 8.8% of trips; Logan Webb allows walks sparingly (5.8%).
Edge · Logan WebbPirates: 8.8% walk rateLogan Webb: 5.8% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Logan Webb
San Francisco Giants · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.8/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
19% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Paul Skenes
Pittsburgh Pirates · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.4/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
4+ Strikeouts — 6 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
29% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Jonah Cox
San Francisco Giants · 0.300 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2510 / 25
On-base rate is up 98% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 35%.
Rafael Devers
San Francisco Giants · 0.283 hit rate · 0.565 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 257-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 39% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 17%.
Bryce Eldridge
San Francisco Giants · 0.333 hit rate · 0.485 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2519 / 25
Hit rate is up 61% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 7 games.
Jacob Gonzalez
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.095 hit rate · 0.095 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
Jake Mangum
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.125 hit rate · 0.156 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 41%.
Nick Yorke
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.105 hit rate · 0.105 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L259 / 25
On-base rate is down 64% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 37%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
85
Konnor Griffin
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
77
Rafael Devers
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
76
Bryce Eldridge
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
74
Bryan Reynolds
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Luis Arraez
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Heliot Ramos
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Giants bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Pirates Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 65th percentile in combined suppression.
- Giants are trending down; Pirates are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Is Jonah Cox the one to watch?
Jonah Cox enters as Giants' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 98% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 35%.
0.300 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA · 0.227 hit rate · 0.409 TB/PA
Can Jacob Gonzalez snap out of it?
Jacob Gonzalez has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
0.095 hit rate · 0.095 TB/PA · 0.190 hit rate · 0.380 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-01, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.