Los Angeles Angels
53-87 · 5th in AL West, 18.5 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Ryan Johnson · Pitches to contact
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
69-72 · 4th in NL Central, 18 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Jared Jones · High-strikeout arm
Team Identity
Los Angeles Angels
Season-to-date, 140 games, 5,428 PA.
A below-league-average offense across most categories this season. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerWell Below12
ContactWell Below16
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg32
SpeedAverage48
RISPWell Below14
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 16% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,696 PA.
An aggressive, patient offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerBelow Avg40
ContactAverage63
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg70
SpeedAbove Avg83
RISPAbove Avg70
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 25% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Pirates' offense is defined by being aggressive, and this game tests whether Angels can match it.
Swing Factor
Jared Jones strikes hitters out at a 25.9% clip (81st percentile); Angels carry a 24.3% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Angels are trending down and Pirates are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Jared Jones miss enough bats?
Jared Jones strikes hitters out at a 25.9% clip (81st percentile); Angels carry a 24.3% strikeout rate.
Edge · Jared JonesJared Jones: 25.9% K rateAngels: 24.3% K rateHigh confidence
Can Ryan Johnson miss enough bats?
Ryan Johnson strikes hitters out at a 16.2% clip (14th percentile); Pirates carry a 23.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · PiratesRyan Johnson: 16.2% K ratePirates: 23.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Ryan Johnson command the strike zone?
Pirates walk in 8.9% of trips; Ryan Johnson allows walks at a fairly typical rate (11.2%).
Edge · PiratesPirates: 8.9% walk rateRyan Johnson: 11.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Jared Jones command the strike zone?
Angels walk in 8.0% of trips; Jared Jones allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.4%).
Edge · Jared JonesAngels: 8.0% walk rateJared Jones: 8.4% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Ryan Johnson limit Pirates' power?
Pirates rank in the 40th percentile in extra-base production, while Ryan Johnson sits in the 26th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · PiratesPirates: 0.344 TB/PARyan Johnson: 0.377 TB/PA allowed (321 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Ryan Johnson
Los Angeles Angels · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.4/start
Hits allowed3.8/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
16% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Jared Jones
Pittsburgh Pirates · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.5/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
26% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Wade Meckler
Los Angeles Angels · 0.296 hit rate · 0.333 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2517 / 25
On-base rate is up 28% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
Vaughn Grissom
Los Angeles Angels · 0.233 hit rate · 0.512 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 12%.
Jared Triolo
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.250 hit rate · 0.333 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 28% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
Jose Siri
Los Angeles Angels · 0.067 hit rate · 0.067 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L101 / 10L258 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 83% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 40%.
Rafael Flores
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.100 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games.
Denzer Guzman
Los Angeles Angels · 0.080 hit rate · 0.120 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 64% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 32%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
85
Konnor Griffin
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
79
Bryan Reynolds
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Nick Gonzales
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Oneil Cruz
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
74
Zach Neto
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Angels
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
73
Mike Trout
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Angels
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Pirates bring more power.
Early edge Pirates Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 40th percentile in combined suppression.
- Angels are trending down; Pirates are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Can Angels handle Jared Jones's strikeout stuff?
Angels have been a below-average contact team while Jared Jones misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Angels contact percentile: 16
Can Jose Siri snap out of it?
Jose Siri has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 83% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 40%.
0.067 hit rate · 0.067 TB/PA · 0.226 hit rate · 0.399 TB/PA
Is Wade Meckler the one to watch?
Wade Meckler enters as Angels' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 28% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
0.296 hit rate · 0.333 TB/PA · 0.249 hit rate · 0.329 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-04, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.