San Francisco Giants
58-82 · 4th in NL West, 24.5 GB
Bats heating upRHP Blade Tidwell · Balanced starter
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
68-72 · 4th in NL Central, 19 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Lake Bachar · High-strikeout arm
Team Identity
San Francisco Giants
Season-to-date, 140 games, 5,376 PA.
An opportunistic, power-hitting offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg76
ContactAbove Avg69
Plate DisciplineWell Below19
SpeedBelow Avg41
RISPAbove Avg81
Recent FormTrending Up
Walk rate is up 43% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Season-to-date, 140 games, 5,657 PA.
An aggressive, opportunistic offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerBelow Avg43
ContactAverage61
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg70
SpeedAbove Avg83
RISPAbove Avg74
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 22% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Pirates bring the more aggressive profile, while Giants lean on being opportunistic.
Swing Factor
Lake Bachar strikes hitters out at a 24.2% clip (72nd percentile); Giants carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Giants are trending up and Pirates are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Lake Bachar miss enough bats?
Lake Bachar strikes hitters out at a 24.2% clip (72nd percentile); Giants carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · GiantsLake Bachar: 24.2% K rateGiants: 20.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Lake Bachar command the strike zone?
Giants walk in 7.1% of trips; Lake Bachar allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.4%).
Edge · Lake BacharGiants: 7.1% walk rateLake Bachar: 9.4% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Blade Tidwell miss enough bats?
Blade Tidwell strikes hitters out at a 19.6% clip (37th percentile); Pirates carry a 23.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · PiratesBlade Tidwell: 19.6% K ratePirates: 23.5% K rateModerate confidence
Can Blade Tidwell command the strike zone?
Pirates walk in 8.8% of trips; Blade Tidwell allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.2%).
Edge · Blade TidwellPirates: 8.8% walk rateBlade Tidwell: 8.2% walks allowedModerate confidence
Can Lake Bachar limit Giants' power?
Giants rank in the 76th percentile in extra-base production, while Lake Bachar sits in the 63rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · GiantsGiants: 0.359 TB/PALake Bachar: 0.308 TB/PA allowed (318 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Blade Tidwell
San Francisco Giants · 5 starts
Strikeouts4.2/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 54 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 5
20% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Rafael Devers
San Francisco Giants · 0.327 hit rate · 0.714 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L1010 / 10L2518 / 2510-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 77% over his prior baseline, with hits in 10 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
Jonah Cox
San Francisco Giants · 0.308 hit rate · 0.577 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is up 92% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 27%.
Jared Triolo
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.286 hit rate · 0.371 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 43% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
Rafael Flores
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.075 hit rate · 0.175 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 70% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 32%.
Jake Mangum
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.125 hit rate · 0.125 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 64% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 31%.
Nick Yorke
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.111 hit rate · 0.111 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 58% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
83
Rafael Devers
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
80
Bryce Eldridge
1+ Hit
San Francisco Giants
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
79
Bryan Reynolds
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
76
Nick Gonzales
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
76
Oneil Cruz
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
69
Spencer Horwitz
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Giants bring stronger recent momentum. Giants bring more power.
Early edge Pirates Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 56th percentile in combined suppression.
- Giants are trending up; Pirates are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Can Rafael Flores snap out of it?
Rafael Flores has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 70% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 32%.
0.075 hit rate · 0.175 TB/PA · 0.246 hit rate · 0.574 TB/PA
Is Rafael Devers the one to watch?
Rafael Devers enters as Giants' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 77% over his prior baseline, with hits in 10 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
0.327 hit rate · 0.714 TB/PA · 0.208 hit rate · 0.403 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-03, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.