Sports Today Saturday, September 5
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 5, 2026
New York Yankees
80-61 · 2nd in AL East, 4 GB
Bats heating up
LHP Carlos Rodón · High-strikeout arm
@
San Diego Padres
74-67 · 2nd in NL West, 10 GB
Offense cooling lately
LHP Robbie Ray · Balanced starter
MLB · Petco Park, hits run 6% below average here · 4:15 PM PT

Team Identity

New York Yankees
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,480 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Above Avg78
Contact
Well Below10
Plate Discipline
Above Avg72
Speed
Average65
RISP
Below Avg28
Recent Form
Trending Up
Hit rate is up 23% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
San Diego Padres
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,466 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Well Below24
Contact
Below Avg36
Plate Discipline
Average57
Speed
Above Avg75
RISP
Average52
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Padres bring the more aggressive profile, while Yankees lean on being power-hitting.

Swing Factor

Padres rank in the 24th percentile in extra-base production, while Carlos Rodón sits in the 89th percentile at suppressing total bases.

Momentum

Yankees are trending up and Padres are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Carlos Rodón limit Padres' power?
Padres rank in the 24th percentile in extra-base production, while Carlos Rodón sits in the 89th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Carlos RodónPadres: 0.329 TB/PACarlos Rodón: 0.254 TB/PA allowed (256 PA)Moderate confidence
Can Robbie Ray miss enough bats?
Robbie Ray strikes hitters out at a 19.1% clip (33rd percentile); Yankees carry a 23.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · YankeesRobbie Ray: 19.1% K rateYankees: 23.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Carlos Rodón miss enough bats?
Carlos Rodón strikes hitters out at a 24.6% clip (73rd percentile); Padres carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · Carlos RodónCarlos Rodón: 24.6% K ratePadres: 20.8% K rateModerate confidence
Can Robbie Ray command the strike zone?
Yankees walk in 9.2% of trips; Robbie Ray allows walks at a fairly typical rate (11.1%).
Edge · YankeesYankees: 9.2% walk rateRobbie Ray: 11.1% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Robbie Ray limit Yankees' power?
Yankees rank in the 78th percentile in extra-base production, while Robbie Ray sits in the 61st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · YankeesYankees: 0.347 TB/PARobbie Ray: 0.311 TB/PA allowed (655 PA)High confidence

Pitcher Trends

Carlos Rodon
Carlos Rodon
New York Yankees · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts5.4/start
Hits allowed3.4/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
25% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Robbie Ray
Robbie Ray
San Diego Padres · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.4/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
19% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Heliot Ramos
Heliot Ramos
New York Yankees · 0.150 hit rate · 0.350 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 124% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 20%.
Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt
New York Yankees · 0.316 hit rate · 0.632 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 61% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 16%.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.286 hit rate · 0.400 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
On-base rate is up 59% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 26%.
George Lombard Jr.
George Lombard Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.095 hit rate · 0.190 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 24
Hit rate is down 61% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 43%.
Trent Grisham
Trent Grisham
New York Yankees · 0.077 hit rate · 0.077 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 78% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 23%.
Luis Campusano
Luis Campusano
San Diego Padres · 0.182 hit rate · 0.318 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
On-base rate is down 40% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 36%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

78
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Ty France
Ty France
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Yankees bring stronger recent momentum. Yankees bring more power.

Early edge Yankees Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 57th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Yankees are trending up; Padres are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Does Yankees' power tilt the game?
Yankees bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Yankees power pct 78 vs Padres 24
Can Yankees handle Robbie Ray's strikeout stuff?
Yankees have been a below-average contact team while Robbie Ray misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Yankees contact percentile: 10
Can Padres handle Carlos Rodón's strikeout stuff?
Padres have been a below-average contact team while Carlos Rodón misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Padres contact percentile: 36
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-05, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.