New York Yankees
80-60 · 2nd in AL East, 3 GB
Bats heating upLHP Max Fried · Balanced starter
@
San Diego Padres
73-67 · 3rd in NL West, 10 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Walker Buehler · Balanced starter
Team Identity
New York Yankees
Season-to-date, 140 games, 5,445 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg79
ContactWell Below11
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg74
SpeedAbove Avg70
RISPBelow Avg27
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 27% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
San Diego Padres
Season-to-date, 140 games, 5,430 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerBelow Avg26
ContactBelow Avg36
Plate DisciplineAverage56
SpeedAbove Avg75
RISPAverage51
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 12% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Padres bring the more aggressive profile, while Yankees lean on being power-hitting.
Swing Factor
Padres rank in the 26th percentile in extra-base production, while Max Fried sits in the 93rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Yankees are trending up and Padres are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Max Fried limit Padres' power?
Padres rank in the 26th percentile in extra-base production, while Max Fried sits in the 93rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Max FriedPadres: 0.329 TB/PAMax Fried: 0.233 TB/PA allowed (356 PA)High confidence
Can Walker Buehler miss enough bats?
Walker Buehler strikes hitters out at a 18.9% clip (32nd percentile); Yankees carry a 23.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · YankeesWalker Buehler: 18.9% K rateYankees: 23.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Walker Buehler limit Yankees' power?
Yankees rank in the 79th percentile in extra-base production, while Walker Buehler sits in the 35th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · YankeesYankees: 0.347 TB/PAWalker Buehler: 0.361 TB/PA allowed (576 PA)High confidence
Can Max Fried miss enough bats?
Max Fried strikes hitters out at a 23.3% clip (65th percentile); Padres carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · Max FriedMax Fried: 23.3% K ratePadres: 20.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Walker Buehler command the strike zone?
Yankees walk in 9.2% of trips; Walker Buehler allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.5%).
Edge · Walker BuehlerYankees: 9.2% walk rateWalker Buehler: 8.5% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Max Fried
New York Yankees · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.0/start
Hits allowed3.8/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 6 of last 67+ Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Walker Buehler
San Diego Padres · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.8/start
Hits allowed4.5/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
19% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Heliot Ramos
New York Yankees · 0.176 hit rate · 0.412 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 164% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
Paul Goldschmidt
New York Yankees · 0.333 hit rate · 0.667 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 70% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
Luis Garcia Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.371 hit rate · 0.600 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Hit rate is up 78% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games.
Luis Campusano
San Diego Padres · 0.087 hit rate · 0.087 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 78% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 39%.
Luis Rengifo
San Diego Padres · 0.118 hit rate · 0.176 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2514 / 25
Hit rate is down 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 24%.
Trent Grisham
New York Yankees · 0.070 hit rate · 0.070 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 80% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 23%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Fernando Tatis Jr.
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
78
Cody Bellinger
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
78
Ben Rice
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
76
Jackson Merrill
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Ty France
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Manny Machado
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Yankees bring stronger recent momentum. Yankees bring more power.
Early edge Yankees Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 56th percentile in combined suppression.
- Yankees are trending up; Padres are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Does Yankees' power tilt the game?
Yankees bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Yankees power pct 79 vs Padres 26
Can Padres handle Max Fried's strikeout stuff?
Padres have been a below-average contact team while Max Fried misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Padres contact percentile: 36
Can Luis Campusano snap out of it?
Luis Campusano has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 78% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 39%.
0.087 hit rate · 0.087 TB/PA · 0.244 hit rate · 0.399 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-04, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.