Sports Today Wednesday, September 9
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 9, 2026
Washington Nationals
67-80 · 5th in NL East, 19 GB
Offense cooling lately
LHP Jackson Kent · Pitches to contact
@
San Diego Padres
77-68 · 3rd in NL West, 11 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Walker Buehler · Balanced starter
MLB · Petco Park, hits run 6% below average here · 1:10 PM PT

Team Identity

Washington Nationals
Season-to-date, 147 games, 5,890 PA.
A power-hitting, aggressive offense that does damage on extra-base hits. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Elite96
Contact
Above Avg67
Plate Discipline
Average46
Speed
Elite88
RISP
Average46
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 11% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
San Diego Padres
Season-to-date, 145 games, 5,611 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Well Below24
Contact
Below Avg33
Plate Discipline
Average57
Speed
Above Avg75
RISP
Average50
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 8% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Padres bring the more aggressive profile, while Nationals lean on being power-hitting.

Swing Factor

Nationals rank in the 96th percentile in extra-base production, while Walker Buehler sits in the 38th percentile at suppressing total bases.

Momentum

Nationals are trending down and Padres are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Walker Buehler limit Nationals' power?
Nationals rank in the 96th percentile in extra-base production, while Walker Buehler sits in the 38th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · NationalsNationals: 0.365 TB/PAWalker Buehler: 0.360 TB/PA allowed (595 PA)High confidence
Can Jackson Kent limit Padres' power?
Padres rank in the 24th percentile in extra-base production, while Jackson Kent sits in the 80th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Jackson KentPadres: 0.328 TB/PAJackson Kent: 0.278 TB/PA allowed (115 PA)Low confidence
Can Jackson Kent miss enough bats?
Jackson Kent strikes hitters out at a 18.3% clip (27th percentile); Padres carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · PadresJackson Kent: 18.3% K ratePadres: 20.8% K rateLow confidence
Can Walker Buehler miss enough bats?
Walker Buehler strikes hitters out at a 19.3% clip (35th percentile); Nationals carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · NationalsWalker Buehler: 19.3% K rateNationals: 20.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Jackson Kent command the strike zone?
Padres walk in 8.9% of trips; Jackson Kent allows walks at a fairly typical rate (16.5%).
Edge · Jackson KentPadres: 8.9% walk rateJackson Kent: 16.5% walks allowedLow confidence

Pitcher Trends

Jackson Kent
Jackson Kent
Washington Nationals · 5 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.2/start
Hits allowed4.4/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 54 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 5
18% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Walker Buehler
Walker Buehler
San Diego Padres · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.1/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
19% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Manny Machado
Manny Machado
San Diego Padres · 0.318 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 255-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 80% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
Jorbit Vivas
Jorbit Vivas
Washington Nationals · 0.231 hit rate · 0.385 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2513 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 52% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 8%.
Brady House
Brady House
Washington Nationals · 0.278 hit rate · 0.361 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 25
Hit rate is up 38% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
Washington Nationals · 0.095 hit rate · 0.167 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 38%.
Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth
San Diego Padres · 0.053 hit rate · 0.158 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is down 72% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 10 games.
Abimelec Ortiz
Abimelec Ortiz
Washington Nationals · 0.152 hit rate · 0.182 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 56% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 27%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

78
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Ty France
Ty France
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Dylan Crews
Dylan Crews
1+ Hit
Washington Nationals
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
71
Luis Garcia Jr.
Luis Garcia Jr.
1+ Hit
Washington Nationals
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Curtis Mead
Curtis Mead
1+ Hit
Washington Nationals
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
67
Daylen Lile
Daylen Lile
1+ Hit
Washington Nationals
Why it stands out
Consistently reaching base
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Nationals bring more power.

Early edge Nationals Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 41st percentile in combined suppression.
  • Nationals are trending down; Padres are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Does Nationals' power tilt the game?
Nationals bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Nationals power pct 96 vs Padres 24
Is Manny Machado the one to watch?
Manny Machado enters as Padres' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 80% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
0.318 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA · 0.176 hit rate · 0.331 TB/PA
Can CJ Abrams snap out of it?
CJ Abrams has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 38%.
0.095 hit rate · 0.167 TB/PA · 0.230 hit rate · 0.440 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-09, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.