Athletics
55-86 · 4th in AL West, 17 GB
Bats heating upKade Morris
@
Seattle Mariners
66-75 · 3rd in AL West, 6 GB
Bats heating upRHP Logan Gilbert · High-strikeout arm · plus control
Team Identity
Athletics
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,524 PA.
An opportunistic, contact-oriented offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be station-to-station. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage62
ContactAbove Avg66
Plate DisciplineAverage45
SpeedBelow Avg30
RISPAbove Avg74
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 19% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Seattle Mariners
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,452 PA.
A below-league-average offense across most categories this season. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below23
ContactWell Below14
Plate DisciplineAverage54
SpeedAverage52
RISPWell Below12
Recent FormTrending Up
Walk rate is up 29% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Athletics' offense is defined by being opportunistic, and this game tests whether Mariners can match it.
Swing Factor
Logan Gilbert strikes hitters out at a 25.2% clip (78th percentile); Athletics carry a 21.8% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Athletics are trending up and Mariners are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Logan Gilbert miss enough bats?
Logan Gilbert strikes hitters out at a 25.2% clip (78th percentile); Athletics carry a 21.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · AthleticsLogan Gilbert: 25.2% K rateAthletics: 21.8% K rateHigh confidence
Can Logan Gilbert limit Athletics' power?
Athletics rank in the 62nd percentile in extra-base production, while Logan Gilbert sits in the 46th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · AthleticsAthletics: 0.351 TB/PALogan Gilbert: 0.345 TB/PA allowed (658 PA)High confidence
How do Athletics handle right-handers?
Athletics have produced worse against right-handers this season (0.341 vs. 0.351 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Logan Gilbertvs right-handers: 0.341 TB/PA (3679 PA)overall: 0.351 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Logan Gilbert command the strike zone?
Athletics walk in 8.4% of trips; Logan Gilbert allows walks sparingly (6.1%).
Edge · Logan GilbertAthletics: 8.4% walk rateLogan Gilbert: 6.1% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Logan Gilbert
Seattle Mariners · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.9/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
5+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
25% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Cal Raleigh
Seattle Mariners · 0.238 hit rate · 0.714 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2513 / 255-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 183% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
Alika Williams
Athletics · 0.308 hit rate · 0.615 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 7 games.
Lawrence Butler
Athletics · 0.271 hit rate · 0.375 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L1010 / 10L2521 / 2512-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 10 of his last 10 games.
Carlos Cortes
Athletics · 0.240 hit rate · 0.360 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2514 / 252-game hit streak
On-base rate is down 27% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 32%.
Josh Naylor
Seattle Mariners · 0.220 hit rate · 0.244 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 24% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 17%.
Weston Wilson
Seattle Mariners · 0.176 hit rate · 0.176 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2512 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 4 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 53%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
86
Henry Bolte
1+ Hit
Athletics
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
83
Jeff McNeil
1+ Hit
Athletics
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
76
Lawrence Butler
1+ Hit
Athletics
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
75
Cal Raleigh
1+ Hit
Seattle Mariners
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
73
Dominic Canzone
1+ Hit
Seattle Mariners
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Randy Arozarena
1+ Hit
Seattle Mariners
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Athletics bring more power.
Early edge Athletics Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Moderate
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Athletics are trending up; Mariners are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Does Athletics' power tilt the game?
Athletics bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Athletics power pct 62 vs Mariners 23
Is Cal Raleigh the one to watch?
Cal Raleigh enters as Mariners' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 183% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
0.238 hit rate · 0.714 TB/PA · 0.132 hit rate · 0.252 TB/PA
Can Carlos Cortes snap out of it?
Carlos Cortes has cooled off. On-base rate is down 27% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 32%.
0.240 hit rate · 0.360 TB/PA · 0.227 hit rate · 0.350 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-04, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.