Sports Today Wednesday, September 2
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 2, 2026
New York Mets
62-77 · 5th in NL East, 20.5 GB
Steady at the plate
Justin Hagenman
@
Tampa Bay Rays
83-55 · 1st in AL East
Offense cooling lately
RHP Griffin Jax · High-strikeout arm
MLB · Tropicana Field · 3:40 PM PT

Team Identity

New York Mets
Season-to-date, 139 games, 5,352 PA.
A below-league-average offense across most categories this season.
Power
Below Avg41
Contact
Well Below24
Plate Discipline
Below Avg44
Speed
Below Avg27
RISP
Well Below24
Recent Form
Holding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
Tampa Bay Rays
Season-to-date, 138 games, 5,444 PA.
A contact-oriented, opportunistic offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Below Avg31
Contact
Elite97
Plate Discipline
Below Avg29
Speed
Above Avg67
RISP
Above Avg72
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 10% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Rays' offense is defined by being contact-oriented, and this game tests whether Mets can match it.

Swing Factor

Griffin Jax strikes hitters out at a 25.3% clip (78th percentile); Mets carry a 22.1% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Mets are holding steady and Rays are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Griffin Jax miss enough bats?
Griffin Jax strikes hitters out at a 25.3% clip (78th percentile); Mets carry a 22.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · Griffin JaxGriffin Jax: 25.3% K rateMets: 22.1% K rateHigh confidence
Can Griffin Jax limit Mets' power?
Mets rank in the 41st percentile in extra-base production, while Griffin Jax sits in the 50th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Griffin JaxMets: 0.338 TB/PAGriffin Jax: 0.338 TB/PA allowed (396 PA)High confidence
Can Griffin Jax command the strike zone?
Mets walk in 8.2% of trips; Griffin Jax allows walks sparingly (7.6%).
Edge · Griffin JaxMets: 8.2% walk rateGriffin Jax: 7.6% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Mets handle right-handers?
Mets have produced worse against right-handers this season (0.338 vs. 0.338 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Griffin Jaxvs right-handers: 0.338 TB/PA (3818 PA)overall: 0.338 TB/PAModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Griffin Jax
Griffin Jax
Tampa Bay Rays · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts6.8/start
Hits allowed4.4/start
8+ Strikeouts — 3 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
25% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Luis Robert Jr.
Luis Robert Jr.
New York Mets · 0.212 hit rate · 0.485 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 50% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games.
Brett Baty
Brett Baty
New York Mets · 0.286 hit rate · 0.381 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
Hit rate is up 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.385 hit rate · 0.538 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 253-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 76% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 8 games.
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.042 hit rate · 0.042 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 86% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games.
Francisco Alvarez
Francisco Alvarez
New York Mets · 0.160 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 42% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 52%.
A.J. Ewing
A.J. Ewing
New York Mets · 0.163 hit rate · 0.186 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 41% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

76
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
76
Carson Benge
Carson Benge
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
75
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
65
Francisco Lindor
Francisco Lindor
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
62
Bo Bichette
Bo Bichette
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

UncertainLow confidence

Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call.

Early edge Rays Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Moderate
  • At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
  • Mets are trending steady; Rays are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Can Mets handle Griffin Jax's strikeout stuff?
Mets have been a below-average contact team while Griffin Jax misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Mets contact percentile: 24
Can Richie Palacios snap out of it?
Richie Palacios has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 86% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games.
0.042 hit rate · 0.042 TB/PA · 0.197 hit rate · 0.291 TB/PA
Is Luis Robert Jr. the one to watch?
Luis Robert Jr. enters as Mets' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 50% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games.
0.212 hit rate · 0.485 TB/PA · 0.193 hit rate · 0.323 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-02, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.