New York Mets
62-76 · 5th in NL East, 20 GB
Bats heating upLHP Sean Manaea · Command specialist
@
Tampa Bay Rays
82-55 · 1st in AL East
Offense cooling latelyRHP Freddy Peralta · Balanced starter
Team Identity
New York Mets
Season-to-date, 137 games, 5,281 PA.
A below-league-average offense across most categories this season. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg40
ContactBelow Avg27
Plate DisciplineAverage45
SpeedBelow Avg28
RISPWell Below24
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 6% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Tampa Bay Rays
Season-to-date, 136 games, 5,367 PA.
A contact-oriented, opportunistic offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerBelow Avg31
ContactElite96
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg33
SpeedAbove Avg67
RISPAbove Avg74
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 14% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Rays' offense is defined by being contact-oriented, and this game tests whether Mets can match it.
Swing Factor
Sean Manaea strikes hitters out at a 21.7% clip (53rd percentile); Rays carry a 17.6% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Mets are trending up and Rays are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Sean Manaea miss enough bats?
Sean Manaea strikes hitters out at a 21.7% clip (53rd percentile); Rays carry a 17.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · RaysSean Manaea: 21.7% K rateRays: 17.6% K rateHigh confidence
How do Rays handle left-handers?
Rays have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.315 vs. 0.344 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Sean Manaeavs left-handers: 0.315 TB/PA (1658 PA)overall: 0.344 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Freddy Peralta miss enough bats?
Freddy Peralta strikes hitters out at a 20.9% clip (46th percentile); Mets carry a 22.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · MetsFreddy Peralta: 20.9% K rateMets: 22.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Freddy Peralta limit Mets' power?
Mets rank in the 40th percentile in extra-base production, while Freddy Peralta sits in the 21st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · MetsMets: 0.338 TB/PAFreddy Peralta: 0.389 TB/PA allowed (635 PA)High confidence
Can Sean Manaea limit Rays' power?
Rays rank in the 31st percentile in extra-base production, while Sean Manaea sits in the 14th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · RaysRays: 0.344 TB/PASean Manaea: 0.404 TB/PA allowed (549 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Sean Manaea
New York Mets · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.8/start
Hits allowed5.9/start
7+ Strikeouts — 3 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
22% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Freddy Peralta
Tampa Bay Rays · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.4/start
Hits allowed5.2/start
6+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
21% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Brett Baty
New York Mets · 0.320 hit rate · 0.440 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2512 / 25
Hit rate is up 74% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 24%.
Luis Robert Jr.
New York Mets · 0.211 hit rate · 0.474 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 48% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
Carson Benge
New York Mets · 0.326 hit rate · 0.512 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2519 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 39% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Richie Palacios
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 6 games.
Francisco Alvarez
New York Mets · 0.115 hit rate · 0.154 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 46%.
A.J. Ewing
New York Mets · 0.140 hit rate · 0.163 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 49% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
72
Junior Caminero
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Carson Benge
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
71
Chandler Simpson
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
69
Yandy Diaz
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
66
Bo Bichette
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
62
Jonathan Aranda
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Recent form supports the pick
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
Expected Game Shape
Contact-heavyModerate confidence
Offense likely comes from stringing hits together. Mets bring stronger recent momentum.
Early edge Rays Driver Traffic and situational hitting Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 38th percentile in combined suppression.
- Mets are trending up; Rays are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Can Richie Palacios snap out of it?
Richie Palacios has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 6 games.
0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA · 0.199 hit rate · 0.294 TB/PA
Is Brett Baty the one to watch?
Brett Baty enters as Mets' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 74% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 24%.
0.320 hit rate · 0.440 TB/PA · 0.184 hit rate · 0.285 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-01, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.