Tampa Bay Rays
84-57 · 1st in AL East
Offense cooling latelyRHP Drew Rasmussen · High-strikeout arm · plus control
@
Texas Rangers
70-72 · 2nd in AL West, 3 GB
Bats heating upRHP Jacob deGrom · Elite strikeout stuff · plus control
Team Identity
Tampa Bay Rays
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,558 PA.
A contact-oriented, opportunistic offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerBelow Avg29
ContactElite97
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg29
SpeedAbove Avg67
RISPAbove Avg74
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 26% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Texas Rangers
Season-to-date, 142 games, 5,442 PA.
An opportunistic offense that cashes in scoring chances. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage49
ContactAverage51
Plate DisciplineAverage52
SpeedBelow Avg35
RISPAbove Avg72
Recent FormTrending Up
Walk rate is up 25% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Rangers bring the more opportunistic profile, while Rays lean on being contact-oriented.
Swing Factor
Jacob deGrom strikes hitters out at a 29.2% clip (93rd percentile); Rays carry a 17.6% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Rays are trending down and Rangers are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Jacob deGrom miss enough bats?
Jacob deGrom strikes hitters out at a 29.2% clip (93rd percentile); Rays carry a 17.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · RaysJacob deGrom: 29.2% K rateRays: 17.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Drew Rasmussen limit Rangers' power?
Rangers rank in the 49th percentile in extra-base production, while Drew Rasmussen sits in the 82nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Drew RasmussenRangers: 0.345 TB/PADrew Rasmussen: 0.274 TB/PA allowed (602 PA)High confidence
Can Drew Rasmussen miss enough bats?
Drew Rasmussen strikes hitters out at a 24.8% clip (74th percentile); Rangers carry a 21.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · RangersDrew Rasmussen: 24.8% K rateRangers: 21.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Jacob deGrom limit Rays' power?
Rays rank in the 29th percentile in extra-base production, while Jacob deGrom sits in the 51st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Jacob deGromRays: 0.343 TB/PAJacob deGrom: 0.336 TB/PA allowed (572 PA)High confidence
Can Jacob deGrom command the strike zone?
Rays walk in 8.1% of trips; Jacob deGrom allows walks sparingly (6.5%).
Edge · Jacob deGromRays: 8.1% walk rateJacob deGrom: 6.5% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Drew Rasmussen
Tampa Bay Rays · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.4/start
Hits allowed4.0/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 65+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
25% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Jacob deGrom
Texas Rangers · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.6/start
Hits allowed4.8/start
8+ Strikeouts — 3 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
29% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Justin Foscue
Texas Rangers · 0.308 hit rate · 0.692 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
Danny Jansen
Texas Rangers · 0.190 hit rate · 0.524 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 121% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 19%.
Ezequiel Duran
Texas Rangers · 0.273 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 253-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 26% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 16%.
Jonny DeLuca
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.132 hit rate · 0.237 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is down 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 24%.
Liam Hicks
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.321 hit rate · 0.357 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 25
On-base rate is down 25% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 14%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
75
Brandon Nimmo
1+ Hit
Texas Rangers
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
75
Yandy Diaz
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Chandler Simpson
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Junior Caminero
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
71
Ezequiel Duran
1+ Hit
Texas Rangers
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Corey Seager
1+ Hit
Texas Rangers
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
Expected Game Shape
Starter-drivenModerate confidence
Runs may be at a premium if the starters hold form. Rangers bring stronger recent momentum. Rangers bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Rays Driver Pitching and command Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 76th percentile in combined suppression.
- Rays are trending down; Rangers are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Is Justin Foscue the one to watch?
Justin Foscue enters as Rangers' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
0.308 hit rate · 0.692 TB/PA · 0.225 hit rate · 0.412 TB/PA
Can Jonny DeLuca snap out of it?
Jonny DeLuca has cooled off. Hit rate is down 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 24%.
0.132 hit rate · 0.237 TB/PA · 0.249 hit rate · 0.402 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-05, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.