Atlanta Braves
83-57 · 1st in NL East
Bats heating upRHP Grant Holmes · Pitches to contact
@
Washington Nationals
67-75 · 4th in NL East, 17 GB
Bats heating upRHP Brad Lord · Balanced starter
Team Identity
Atlanta Braves
Season-to-date, 139 games, 5,371 PA.
A power-hitting, opportunistic offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg82
ContactAverage64
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg27
SpeedBelow Avg42
RISPAbove Avg70
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 12% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Washington Nationals
Season-to-date, 141 games, 5,665 PA.
A power-hitting, aggressive offense that does damage on extra-base hits. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerElite97
ContactAverage65
Plate DisciplineAverage49
SpeedElite88
RISPAverage50
Recent FormTrending Up
Walk rate is up 25% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Nationals' offense is defined by being power-hitting, and this game tests whether Braves can match it.
Swing Factor
Nationals rank in the 97th percentile in extra-base production, while Grant Holmes sits in the 44th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Braves are trending up and Nationals are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Grant Holmes limit Nationals' power?
Nationals rank in the 97th percentile in extra-base production, while Grant Holmes sits in the 44th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · NationalsNationals: 0.367 TB/PAGrant Holmes: 0.348 TB/PA allowed (560 PA)High confidence
Can Grant Holmes miss enough bats?
Grant Holmes strikes hitters out at a 18.2% clip (28th percentile); Nationals carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · NationalsGrant Holmes: 18.2% K rateNationals: 20.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Brad Lord command the strike zone?
Braves walk in 7.4% of trips; Brad Lord allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.2%).
Edge · Brad LordBraves: 7.4% walk rateBrad Lord: 9.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Brad Lord miss enough bats?
Brad Lord strikes hitters out at a 21.1% clip (48th percentile); Braves carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · BravesBrad Lord: 21.1% K rateBraves: 21.0% K rateHigh confidence
How do Nationals handle right-handers?
Nationals have produced worse against right-handers this season (0.363 vs. 0.367 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Grant Holmesvs right-handers: 0.363 TB/PA (4028 PA)overall: 0.367 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Grant Holmes
Atlanta Braves · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.2/start
Hits allowed5.1/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
18% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Brad Lord
Washington Nationals · 3 starts
Strikeouts2.0/start
Hits allowed1.3/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 34 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 3
21% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Sean Murphy
Atlanta Braves · 0.333 hit rate · 0.667 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2510 / 174-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 344% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 29%.
Daylen Lile
Washington Nationals · 0.319 hit rate · 0.745 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 110% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
Jorbit Vivas
Washington Nationals · 0.237 hit rate · 0.342 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2513 / 25
On-base rate is up 41% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
Mike Yastrzemski
Atlanta Braves · 0.083 hit rate · 0.083 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
CJ Abrams
Washington Nationals · 0.108 hit rate · 0.135 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 70% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.
Nasim Nunez
Washington Nationals · 0.100 hit rate · 0.133 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 252-game hit streak
On-base rate is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 23%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
78
Daylen Lile
1+ Hit
Washington Nationals
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
76
Michael Harris II
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
75
Dylan Crews
1+ Hit
Washington Nationals
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Drake Baldwin
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
71
Matt Olson
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
James Wood
1+ Hit
Washington Nationals
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Nationals bring more power.
Early edge Nationals Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 50th percentile in combined suppression.
- Braves are trending up; Nationals are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Is Sean Murphy the one to watch?
Sean Murphy enters as Braves' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 344% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 29%.
0.333 hit rate · 0.667 TB/PA · 0.125 hit rate · 0.150 TB/PA
Can Mike Yastrzemski snap out of it?
Mike Yastrzemski has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
0.083 hit rate · 0.083 TB/PA · 0.203 hit rate · 0.339 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-02, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.