Preseason · Wk 4 · 2026-08-29
Detroit Lions
9-8 in 2025
at
Indianapolis Colts
8-9 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
- Lions: elite offense (28 pts/g) vs Colts' middling defense (24 allowed).
- Colts: strong offense (27 pts/g) vs Lions' weak defense (24 allowed).
- Watch: Lions' run game should test Colts.
Team identity (entering this game · league %ile)
Detroit LionsTeam identityIndianapolis Colts
28.3 94thPoints / game78th 27.4
24.3 34thPoints allowed / game38th 24.2
6.0 94thYards / play78th 5.8
120.1 62thRush yards / game47th 118.1
268.6 94thPass yards / game75th 240.3
39% 3rd-down % 43%
0.2 75thTurnover margin / game53th -0.1
Battlefields
Lions pass offense vs Colts pass defense
268.6 yds/g vs 262.5 allowedEven
Lions rush offense vs Colts rush defense
120.1 yds/g vs 101.9 allowedEdge Lions
Colts pass offense vs Lions pass defense
240.3 yds/g vs 236.9 allowedEven
Colts rush offense vs Lions rush defense
118.1 yds/g vs 114.5 allowedEven
Player spotlights (pick from prior games · matchup effect is measured, and only flagged where it is real)
Lions
Jared GoffQB
275+ Pass Yards
293.3 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Soft on paper
A soft matchup on paper, 4th-softest pass defence of 32 — but across three seasons, soft defences have not produced above-baseline games, so we make no call
Jahmyr GibbsRB
40+ Rush Yards
69.7 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR
60+ Rec Yards
86.3 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Jameson WilliamsWR
60+ Rec Yards
82.8 avg · cleared 80% (8/10)
Matchup not a factor
Colts
Jonathan TaylorRB
60+ Rush Yards
88.8 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
WLLLW
26.2 for · 27.8 against (last 5)
LLLLL
21.8 for · 32.6 against (last 5)
Preview uses only games already played. Weather, injuries, and rest are not modeled yet.