Cincinnati RedsBats heating up
LHP Andrew Abbott · Pitches to contact
@
Chicago CubsBats heating up
RHP Kevin Gausman · Command specialist
Team Identity
Cincinnati Reds
Season-to-date, 135 games, 5,249 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage53
ContactWell Below3
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg67
SpeedAverage53
RISPWell Below11
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 7% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Chicago Cubs
Season-to-date, 135 games, 5,538 PA.
A patient, power-hitting offense that works counts and draws walks. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg83
ContactAverage55
Plate DisciplineElite96
SpeedAbove Avg77
RISPAverage62
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 21% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Cubs' offense is defined by being patient, and this game tests whether Reds can match it.
Swing Factor
Kevin Gausman strikes hitters out at a 22.8% clip (60th percentile); Reds carry a 24.3% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Reds are trending up and Cubs are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Kevin Gausman miss enough bats?
Kevin Gausman strikes hitters out at a 22.8% clip (60th percentile); Reds carry a 24.3% strikeout rate.
Edge · Kevin GausmanKevin Gausman: 22.8% K rateReds: 24.3% K rateHigh confidence
Can Andrew Abbott command the strike zone?
Cubs walk in 10.3% of trips; Andrew Abbott allows walks at a fairly typical rate (10.2%).
Edge · CubsCubs: 10.3% walk rateAndrew Abbott: 10.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Andrew Abbott miss enough bats?
Andrew Abbott strikes hitters out at a 17.4% clip (21st percentile); Cubs carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · CubsAndrew Abbott: 17.4% K rateCubs: 20.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Andrew Abbott limit Cubs' power?
Cubs rank in the 83rd percentile in extra-base production, while Andrew Abbott sits in the 53rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · CubsCubs: 0.354 TB/PAAndrew Abbott: 0.331 TB/PA allowed (655 PA)High confidence
Can Kevin Gausman command the strike zone?
Reds walk in 9.2% of trips; Kevin Gausman allows walks sparingly (6.3%).
Edge · Kevin GausmanReds: 9.2% walk rateKevin Gausman: 6.3% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Andrew Abbott
Cincinnati Reds · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.1/start
Hits allowed4.9/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
17% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Kevin Gausman
Chicago Cubs · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.1/start
Hits allowed6.0/start
4+ Strikeouts — 6 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Ian Happ
Chicago Cubs · 0.250 hit rate · 0.525 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Chicago Cubs · 0.250 hit rate · 0.625 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2517 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 42% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 17%.
Ke'Bryan Hayes
Cincinnati Reds · 0.190 hit rate · 0.190 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 25
On-base rate is up 74% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
JJ Bleday
Cincinnati Reds · 0.152 hit rate · 0.283 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 21% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 26%.
Tyler Stephenson
Cincinnati Reds · 0.211 hit rate · 0.316 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 11% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 42%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
83
Elly De La Cruz
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
77
Sal Stewart
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
77
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
75
Seiya Suzuki
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Alex Bregman
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 2 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
72
JJ Bleday
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 2 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Cubs bring more power.
Early edge Cubs Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 45th percentile in combined suppression.
- Reds are trending up; Cubs are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Reds handle Kevin Gausman's strikeout stuff?
Reds have been a below-average contact team while Kevin Gausman misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Reds contact percentile: 3
Is Ian Happ the one to watch?
Ian Happ enters as Cubs' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
0.250 hit rate · 0.525 TB/PA · 0.178 hit rate · 0.340 TB/PA
Can JJ Bleday snap out of it?
JJ Bleday has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 21% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 26%.
0.152 hit rate · 0.283 TB/PA · 0.180 hit rate · 0.358 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-08-29, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.