Cincinnati RedsBats heating up
RHP Chase Burns · Elite strikeout stuff
@
Chicago CubsBats heating up
LHP Shota Imanaga · High-strikeout arm · plus control
Team Identity
Cincinnati Reds
Season-to-date, 135 games, 5,249 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage53
ContactWell Below3
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg67
SpeedAverage53
RISPWell Below11
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 7% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Chicago Cubs
Season-to-date, 135 games, 5,538 PA.
A patient, power-hitting offense that works counts and draws walks. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg83
ContactAverage55
Plate DisciplineElite96
SpeedAbove Avg77
RISPAverage62
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 21% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Cubs' offense is defined by being patient, and this game tests whether Reds can match it.
Swing Factor
Shota Imanaga strikes hitters out at a 23.8% clip (68th percentile); Reds carry a 24.3% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Reds are trending up and Cubs are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Shota Imanaga miss enough bats?
Shota Imanaga strikes hitters out at a 23.8% clip (68th percentile); Reds carry a 24.3% strikeout rate.
Edge · Shota ImanagaShota Imanaga: 23.8% K rateReds: 24.3% K rateHigh confidence
Can Chase Burns command the strike zone?
Cubs walk in 10.3% of trips; Chase Burns allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.2%).
Edge · Chase BurnsCubs: 10.3% walk rateChase Burns: 8.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Chase Burns miss enough bats?
Chase Burns strikes hitters out at a 27.3% clip (88th percentile); Cubs carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · CubsChase Burns: 27.3% K rateCubs: 20.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Shota Imanaga limit Reds' power?
Reds rank in the 53rd percentile in extra-base production, while Shota Imanaga sits in the 19th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · RedsReds: 0.337 TB/PAShota Imanaga: 0.395 TB/PA allowed (605 PA)High confidence
Can Chase Burns limit Cubs' power?
Cubs rank in the 83rd percentile in extra-base production, while Chase Burns sits in the 63rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · CubsCubs: 0.354 TB/PAChase Burns: 0.307 TB/PA allowed (600 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Chase Burns
Cincinnati Reds · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.0/start
Hits allowed4.8/start
8+ Strikeouts — 3 of last 66 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
27% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Shota Imanaga
Chicago Cubs · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.5/start
Hits allowed5.2/start
4+ Strikeouts — 6 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
24% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Ian Happ
Chicago Cubs · 0.250 hit rate · 0.525 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Chicago Cubs · 0.250 hit rate · 0.625 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2517 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 42% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 17%.
Ke'Bryan Hayes
Cincinnati Reds · 0.190 hit rate · 0.190 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 25
On-base rate is up 74% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
JJ Bleday
Cincinnati Reds · 0.152 hit rate · 0.283 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 21% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 26%.
Tyler Stephenson
Cincinnati Reds · 0.211 hit rate · 0.316 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 11% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 42%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Elly De La Cruz
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
75
Sal Stewart
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Nathaniel Lowe
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Seiya Suzuki
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Alex Bregman
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Ice cold — 2 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Cubs bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Cubs Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 62nd percentile in combined suppression.
- Reds are trending up; Cubs are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Reds handle Shota Imanaga's strikeout stuff?
Reds have been a below-average contact team while Shota Imanaga misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Reds contact percentile: 3
Is Ian Happ the one to watch?
Ian Happ enters as Cubs' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
0.250 hit rate · 0.525 TB/PA · 0.178 hit rate · 0.340 TB/PA
Can JJ Bleday snap out of it?
JJ Bleday has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 21% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 26%.
0.152 hit rate · 0.283 TB/PA · 0.180 hit rate · 0.358 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-08-30, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.