Cincinnati RedsBats heating up
RHP Chase Burns · Elite strikeout stuff
@
Chicago CubsBats heating up
LHP Shota Imanaga · High-strikeout arm · plus control
Team Identity
Cincinnati Reds
Season-to-date, 136 games, 5,288 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage57
ContactWell Below4
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg68
SpeedAverage53
RISPWell Below12
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 10% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Chicago Cubs
Season-to-date, 136 games, 5,587 PA.
A patient, power-hitting offense that works counts and draws walks. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerElite89
ContactAverage65
Plate DisciplineElite96
SpeedAbove Avg78
RISPAbove Avg73
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 31% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Cubs' offense is defined by being patient, and this game tests whether Reds can match it.
Swing Factor
Shota Imanaga strikes hitters out at a 23.8% clip (68th percentile); Reds carry a 24.3% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Reds are trending up and Cubs are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Shota Imanaga miss enough bats?
Shota Imanaga strikes hitters out at a 23.8% clip (68th percentile); Reds carry a 24.3% strikeout rate.
Edge · Shota ImanagaShota Imanaga: 23.8% K rateReds: 24.3% K rateHigh confidence
Can Chase Burns miss enough bats?
Chase Burns strikes hitters out at a 27.3% clip (87th percentile); Cubs carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · CubsChase Burns: 27.3% K rateCubs: 20.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Chase Burns command the strike zone?
Cubs walk in 10.3% of trips; Chase Burns allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.2%).
Edge · Chase BurnsCubs: 10.3% walk rateChase Burns: 8.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Shota Imanaga limit Reds' power?
Reds rank in the 57th percentile in extra-base production, while Shota Imanaga sits in the 18th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · RedsReds: 0.337 TB/PAShota Imanaga: 0.395 TB/PA allowed (605 PA)High confidence
Can Chase Burns limit Cubs' power?
Cubs rank in the 89th percentile in extra-base production, while Chase Burns sits in the 64th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · CubsCubs: 0.358 TB/PAChase Burns: 0.307 TB/PA allowed (600 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Chase Burns
Cincinnati Reds · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.0/start
Hits allowed4.8/start
8+ Strikeouts — 3 of last 66 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
27% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Shota Imanaga
Chicago Cubs · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.5/start
Hits allowed5.2/start
4+ Strikeouts — 6 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
24% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Hector Rodriguez
Cincinnati Reds · 0.333 hit rate · 0.667 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L259 / 18
Total bases per PA is up 483% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 17%.
Nico Hoerner
Chicago Cubs · 0.190 hit rate · 0.214 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2517 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 33% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 12%.
JJ Bleday
Cincinnati Reds · 0.152 hit rate · 0.283 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 20% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 24%.
Jose Trevino
Cincinnati Reds · 0.154 hit rate · 0.269 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2513 / 25
On-base rate is down 35% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Elly De La Cruz
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
79
Alex Bregman
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
77
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
77
Sal Stewart
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
76
Nathaniel Lowe
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
75
Seiya Suzuki
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Cubs bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Cubs Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 62nd percentile in combined suppression.
- Reds are trending up; Cubs are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Reds handle Shota Imanaga's strikeout stuff?
Reds have been a below-average contact team while Shota Imanaga misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Reds contact percentile: 4
Is Hector Rodriguez the one to watch?
Hector Rodriguez enters as Reds' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 483% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 17%.
0.333 hit rate · 0.667 TB/PA · 0.086 hit rate · 0.114 TB/PA
Can Nico Hoerner snap out of it?
Nico Hoerner has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 33% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 12%.
0.190 hit rate · 0.214 TB/PA · 0.233 hit rate · 0.321 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-08-30, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.