Houston AstrosOffense cooling lately
Ethan Pecko
@
New York MetsBats heating up
LHP Zac Thornton · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Houston Astros
Season-to-date, 136 games, 5,277 PA.
A power-hitting offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg78
ContactBelow Avg44
Plate DisciplineAverage52
SpeedWell Below5
RISPAverage63
Recent FormTrending Down
Hit rate is down 10% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
New York Mets
Season-to-date, 136 games, 5,245 PA.
A below-league-average offense across most categories this season. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg41
ContactBelow Avg27
Plate DisciplineAverage45
SpeedBelow Avg26
RISPBelow Avg29
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 6% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Astros' offense is defined by being power-hitting, and this game tests whether Mets can match it.
Swing Factor
Zac Thornton strikes hitters out at a 17.4% clip (21st percentile); Astros carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Astros are trending down and Mets are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Zac Thornton miss enough bats?
Zac Thornton strikes hitters out at a 17.4% clip (21st percentile); Astros carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · AstrosZac Thornton: 17.4% K rateAstros: 21.0% K rateModerate confidence
Can Zac Thornton limit Astros' power?
Astros rank in the 78th percentile in extra-base production, while Zac Thornton sits in the 58th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · AstrosAstros: 0.354 TB/PAZac Thornton: 0.322 TB/PA allowed (230 PA)Moderate confidence
How do Astros handle left-handers?
Astros have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.343 vs. 0.354 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Zac Thorntonvs left-handers: 0.343 TB/PA (1271 PA)overall: 0.354 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Zac Thornton command the strike zone?
Astros walk in 8.5% of trips; Zac Thornton allows walks sparingly (6.1%).
Edge · Zac ThorntonAstros: 8.5% walk rateZac Thornton: 6.1% walks allowedModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Zac Thornton
New York Mets · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.8/start
Hits allowed5.1/start
6+ Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
17% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Luis Robert Jr.
New York Mets · 0.237 hit rate · 0.579 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 89% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
Daulton Varsho
Houston Astros · 0.250 hit rate · 0.475 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 196% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
Brett Baty
New York Mets · 0.333 hit rate · 0.458 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 25
Hit rate is up 81% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
Cam Smith
Houston Astros · 0.034 hit rate · 0.103 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L2512 / 25
Hit rate is down 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 34%.
Francisco Alvarez
New York Mets · 0.100 hit rate · 0.133 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 43%.
LaMonte Wade Jr.
Houston Astros · 0.105 hit rate · 0.158 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 44% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 42%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
74
Carson Benge
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Isaac Paredes
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
69
Jared Young
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
68
Bo Bichette
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
65
Yordan Alvarez
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
64
Daulton Varsho
1+ Hit
Houston Astros
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Mets bring stronger recent momentum. Astros bring more power.
Early edge Astros Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Elevated
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Astros are trending down; Mets are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Does Astros' power tilt the game?
Astros bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Astros power pct 78 vs Mets 41
Is Luis Robert Jr. the one to watch?
Luis Robert Jr. enters as Mets' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 89% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
0.237 hit rate · 0.579 TB/PA · 0.191 hit rate · 0.306 TB/PA
Can Cam Smith snap out of it?
Cam Smith has cooled off. Hit rate is down 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 34%.
0.034 hit rate · 0.103 TB/PA · 0.193 hit rate · 0.348 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-08-30, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.