Boston Red SoxSteady at the plate
LHP Ranger Suarez · Balanced starter
@
New York YankeesSteady at the plate
RHP Will Warren · Balanced starter
Team Identity
Boston Red Sox
Season-to-date, 136 games, 5,372 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging.
PowerAverage48
ContactAbove Avg67
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg32
SpeedAverage50
RISPBelow Avg40
Recent FormHolding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
New York Yankees
Season-to-date, 136 games, 5,274 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone.
PowerAbove Avg76
ContactWell Below9
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg72
SpeedAbove Avg72
RISPWell Below21
Recent FormHolding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Yankees bring the more power-hitting profile, while Red Sox lean on being contact-oriented.
Swing Factor
Ranger Suarez strikes hitters out at a 23.4% clip (65th percentile); Yankees carry a 23.6% strikeout rate.
Momentum
For Red Sox, the path runs through being contact-oriented.
Key Matchups
Can Ranger Suarez miss enough bats?
Ranger Suarez strikes hitters out at a 23.4% clip (65th percentile); Yankees carry a 23.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · Ranger SuarezRanger Suarez: 23.4% K rateYankees: 23.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Will Warren limit Red Sox's power?
Red Sox rank in the 48th percentile in extra-base production, while Will Warren sits in the 15th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Red SoxRed Sox: 0.343 TB/PAWill Warren: 0.404 TB/PA allowed (569 PA)High confidence
Can Will Warren miss enough bats?
Will Warren strikes hitters out at a 22.1% clip (57th percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · Red SoxWill Warren: 22.1% K rateRed Sox: 20.4% K rateHigh confidence
Can Ranger Suarez command the strike zone?
Yankees walk in 9.3% of trips; Ranger Suarez allows walks sparingly (7.4%).
Edge · Ranger SuarezYankees: 9.3% walk rateRanger Suarez: 7.4% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Will Warren command the strike zone?
Red Sox walk in 8.2% of trips; Will Warren allows walks at a fairly typical rate (7.9%).
Edge · Will WarrenRed Sox: 8.2% walk rateWill Warren: 7.9% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Ranger Suarez
Boston Red Sox · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.1/start
Hits allowed4.5/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Will Warren
New York Yankees · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.2/start
Hits allowed5.5/start
6+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
22% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Luis Garcia Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.424 hit rate · 0.818 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 179% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games.
Mickey Gasper
Boston Red Sox · 0.276 hit rate · 0.690 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 117% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 3%.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.294 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2514 / 25
Hit rate is up 59% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
George Lombard Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.154 hit rate · 0.205 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 23
Total bases per PA is down 49% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Trent Grisham
New York Yankees · 0.065 hit rate · 0.130 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is down 65% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 22%.
Andruw Monasterio
Boston Red Sox · 0.114 hit rate · 0.143 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 60% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
75
Ceddanne Rafaela
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
74
Willson Contreras
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
72
Luis Garcia Jr.
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Nick Sogard
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 9th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
70
Wilyer Abreu
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
65
Cody Bellinger
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Yankees bring more power.
Early edge Red Sox Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 49th percentile in combined suppression.
- Red Sox are trending steady; Yankees are trending steady.
Storylines to Watch
Can Yankees handle Ranger Suarez's strikeout stuff?
Yankees have been a below-average contact team while Ranger Suarez misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Yankees contact percentile: 9
Is Luis Garcia Jr. the one to watch?
Luis Garcia Jr. enters as Yankees' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 179% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games.
0.424 hit rate · 0.818 TB/PA · 0.190 hit rate · 0.293 TB/PA
Can George Lombard Jr. snap out of it?
George Lombard Jr. has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 49% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
0.154 hit rate · 0.205 TB/PA · 0.269 hit rate · 0.404 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-08-30, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.