Boston Red SoxBats heating up
LHP Ranger Suarez · Balanced starter
@
New York YankeesBats heating up
RHP Will Warren · Balanced starter
Team Identity
Boston Red Sox
Season-to-date, 134 games, 5,294 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage49
ContactAbove Avg70
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg35
SpeedAverage50
RISPBelow Avg41
Recent FormTrending Up
Walk rate is up 23% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
New York Yankees
Season-to-date, 134 games, 5,201 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg81
ContactWell Below8
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg73
SpeedAbove Avg68
RISPWell Below19
Recent FormTrending Up
On-base rate is up 7% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Yankees bring the more power-hitting profile, while Red Sox lean on being contact-oriented.
Swing Factor
Ranger Suarez strikes hitters out at a 23.4% clip (65th percentile); Yankees carry a 23.7% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Red Sox are trending up and Yankees are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Ranger Suarez miss enough bats?
Ranger Suarez strikes hitters out at a 23.4% clip (65th percentile); Yankees carry a 23.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · Ranger SuarezRanger Suarez: 23.4% K rateYankees: 23.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Will Warren limit Red Sox's power?
Red Sox rank in the 49th percentile in extra-base production, while Will Warren sits in the 15th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Red SoxRed Sox: 0.343 TB/PAWill Warren: 0.404 TB/PA allowed (569 PA)High confidence
Can Will Warren miss enough bats?
Will Warren strikes hitters out at a 22.1% clip (57th percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · Red SoxWill Warren: 22.1% K rateRed Sox: 20.4% K rateHigh confidence
Can Ranger Suarez command the strike zone?
Yankees walk in 9.4% of trips; Ranger Suarez allows walks sparingly (7.4%).
Edge · Ranger SuarezYankees: 9.4% walk rateRanger Suarez: 7.4% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Will Warren command the strike zone?
Red Sox walk in 8.2% of trips; Will Warren allows walks at a fairly typical rate (7.9%).
Edge · Will WarrenRed Sox: 8.2% walk rateWill Warren: 7.9% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Ranger Suarez
Boston Red Sox · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.1/start
Hits allowed4.5/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Will Warren
New York Yankees · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.2/start
Hits allowed5.5/start
6+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
22% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Mickey Gasper
Boston Red Sox · 0.270 hit rate · 0.757 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 180% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 3%.
Luis Garcia Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.324 hit rate · 0.676 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 107% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.289 hit rate · 0.474 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is up 56% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 16%.
Jose Caballero
New York Yankees · 0.097 hit rate · 0.097 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 71% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games.
George Lombard Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.214 hit rate · 0.262 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 21
Total bases per PA is down 32% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 31%.
Andruw Monasterio
Boston Red Sox · 0.128 hit rate · 0.154 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2517 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
77
Ceddanne Rafaela
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Nick Sogard
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
74
Ben Rice
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Masataka Yoshida
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Luis Garcia Jr.
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
69
Wilyer Abreu
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Yankees bring more power.
Early edge Red Sox Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 49th percentile in combined suppression.
- Red Sox are trending up; Yankees are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Yankees handle Ranger Suarez's strikeout stuff?
Yankees have been a below-average contact team while Ranger Suarez misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Yankees contact percentile: 8
Is Mickey Gasper the one to watch?
Mickey Gasper enters as Red Sox's hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 180% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 3%.
0.270 hit rate · 0.757 TB/PA · 0.213 hit rate · 0.270 TB/PA
Can Jose Caballero snap out of it?
Jose Caballero has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 71% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games.
0.097 hit rate · 0.097 TB/PA · 0.206 hit rate · 0.332 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-08-30, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.