Boston Red SoxBats heating up
Starter TBD
@
New York YankeesBats heating up
LHP Max Fried · Balanced starter
Team Identity
Boston Red Sox
Season-to-date, 134 games, 5,294 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage49
ContactAbove Avg70
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg35
SpeedAverage50
RISPBelow Avg41
Recent FormTrending Up
Walk rate is up 23% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
New York Yankees
Season-to-date, 134 games, 5,201 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg81
ContactWell Below8
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg73
SpeedAbove Avg68
RISPWell Below19
Recent FormTrending Up
On-base rate is up 7% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Yankees bring the more power-hitting profile, while Red Sox lean on being contact-oriented.
Swing Factor
Red Sox rank in the 49th percentile in extra-base production, while Max Fried sits in the 95th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Red Sox are trending up and Yankees are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Max Fried limit Red Sox's power?
Red Sox rank in the 49th percentile in extra-base production, while Max Fried sits in the 95th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Max FriedRed Sox: 0.343 TB/PAMax Fried: 0.226 TB/PA allowed (341 PA)High confidence
Can Max Fried miss enough bats?
Max Fried strikes hitters out at a 23.2% clip (63rd percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · Red SoxMax Fried: 23.2% K rateRed Sox: 20.4% K rateHigh confidence
How do Red Sox handle left-handers?
Red Sox have produced better against left-handers this season (0.366 vs. 0.343 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Red Soxvs left-handers: 0.366 TB/PA (1343 PA)overall: 0.343 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Max Fried command the strike zone?
Red Sox walk in 8.2% of trips; Max Fried allows walks at a fairly typical rate (7.9%).
Edge · Max FriedRed Sox: 8.2% walk rateMax Fried: 7.9% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Max Fried
New York Yankees · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.2/start
Hits allowed4.1/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 6 of last 67+ Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Mickey Gasper
Boston Red Sox · 0.270 hit rate · 0.757 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 180% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 3%.
Luis Garcia Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.324 hit rate · 0.676 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 107% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.289 hit rate · 0.474 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is up 56% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 16%.
Jose Caballero
New York Yankees · 0.097 hit rate · 0.097 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 71% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games.
George Lombard Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.214 hit rate · 0.262 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 21
Total bases per PA is down 32% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 31%.
Andruw Monasterio
Boston Red Sox · 0.128 hit rate · 0.154 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2517 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Ceddanne Rafaela
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
77
Ben Rice
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Nick Sogard
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 8th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
71
Wilyer Abreu
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
68
Willson Contreras
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
65
George Lombard Jr.
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Yankees bring more power.
Early edge Yankees Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Moderate
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Red Sox are trending up; Yankees are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Is Mickey Gasper the one to watch?
Mickey Gasper enters as Red Sox's hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 180% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 3%.
0.270 hit rate · 0.757 TB/PA · 0.213 hit rate · 0.270 TB/PA
Can Jose Caballero snap out of it?
Jose Caballero has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 71% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games.
0.097 hit rate · 0.097 TB/PA · 0.206 hit rate · 0.332 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-08-29, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.