Pittsburgh PiratesOffense cooling lately
RHP Lake Bachar · High-strikeout arm
@
St. Louis CardinalsBats heating up
RHP Kyle Leahy · Command specialist
Team Identity
Pittsburgh Pirates
Season-to-date, 136 games, 5,475 PA.
An aggressive, opportunistic offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerBelow Avg43
ContactAverage63
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg69
SpeedAbove Avg82
RISPAbove Avg76
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 30% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
St. Louis Cardinals
Season-to-date, 136 games, 5,317 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below19
ContactAverage54
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg36
SpeedAverage58
RISPAverage48
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 7% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Pirates' offense is defined by being aggressive, and this game tests whether Cardinals can match it.
Swing Factor
Cardinals rank in the 19th percentile in extra-base production, while Lake Bachar sits in the 67th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Pirates are trending down and Cardinals are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Lake Bachar limit Cardinals' power?
Cardinals rank in the 19th percentile in extra-base production, while Lake Bachar sits in the 67th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Lake BacharCardinals: 0.329 TB/PALake Bachar: 0.303 TB/PA allowed (310 PA)High confidence
Can Lake Bachar miss enough bats?
Lake Bachar strikes hitters out at a 24.2% clip (71st percentile); Cardinals carry a 20.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · CardinalsLake Bachar: 24.2% K rateCardinals: 20.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Kyle Leahy command the strike zone?
Pirates walk in 8.8% of trips; Kyle Leahy allows walks sparingly (6.8%).
Edge · Kyle LeahyPirates: 8.8% walk rateKyle Leahy: 6.8% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Kyle Leahy miss enough bats?
Kyle Leahy strikes hitters out at a 21.0% clip (47th percentile); Pirates carry a 23.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · PiratesKyle Leahy: 21.0% K ratePirates: 23.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Lake Bachar command the strike zone?
Cardinals walk in 8.2% of trips; Lake Bachar allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.7%).
Edge · Lake BacharCardinals: 8.2% walk rateLake Bachar: 9.7% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Kyle Leahy
St. Louis Cardinals · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.1/start
Hits allowed4.4/start
6+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 66+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
21% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Bryan Torres
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.400 hit rate · 0.400 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is up 115% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 13%.
Nathan Church
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.286 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
Jared Triolo
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.258 hit rate · 0.258 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2511 / 254-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 25% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 3%.
Jacob Gonzalez
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.045 hit rate · 0.045 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L101 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 89% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 23%.
Jake Mangum
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.065 hit rate · 0.097 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L103 / 10L2512 / 25
Hit rate is down 76% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 32%.
Rafael Flores
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.143 hit rate · 0.371 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 24
On-base rate is down 49% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 37%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
85
Konnor Griffin
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
80
Jordan Walker
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Alec Burleson
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Bryan Reynolds
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
67
JJ Wetherholt
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Recent form supports the pick
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
66
Nick Gonzales
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Cardinals bring stronger recent momentum. Pirates bring more power.
Early edge Pirates Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 55th percentile in combined suppression.
- Pirates are trending down; Cardinals are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Is Bryan Torres the one to watch?
Bryan Torres enters as Cardinals' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 115% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 13%.
0.400 hit rate · 0.400 TB/PA · 0.186 hit rate · 0.318 TB/PA
Can Jacob Gonzalez snap out of it?
Jacob Gonzalez has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 89% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 23%.
0.045 hit rate · 0.045 TB/PA · 0.203 hit rate · 0.405 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-08-29, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.