Sports Today Sunday, August 30
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · August 30, 2026
Pittsburgh PiratesOffense cooling lately
RHP Braxton Ashcraft · High-strikeout arm · plus control
@
St. Louis CardinalsOffense cooling lately
LHP Matthew Liberatore · Balanced starter
MLB · Busch Stadium · 11:15 AM PT

Team Identity

Pittsburgh Pirates
Season-to-date, 137 games, 5,518 PA.
An aggressive, opportunistic offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average47
Contact
Average63
Plate Discipline
Above Avg69
Speed
Above Avg82
RISP
Above Avg76
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 23% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
St. Louis Cardinals
Season-to-date, 137 games, 5,353 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Well Below19
Contact
Average54
Plate Discipline
Below Avg36
Speed
Average58
RISP
Average47
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 24% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Pirates' offense is defined by being aggressive, and this game tests whether Cardinals can match it.

Swing Factor

Braxton Ashcraft strikes hitters out at a 25.1% clip (77th percentile); Cardinals carry a 20.0% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Pirates are trending down and Cardinals are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Braxton Ashcraft miss enough bats?
Braxton Ashcraft strikes hitters out at a 25.1% clip (77th percentile); Cardinals carry a 20.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · CardinalsBraxton Ashcraft: 25.1% K rateCardinals: 20.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Matthew Liberatore limit Pirates' power?
Pirates rank in the 47th percentile in extra-base production, while Matthew Liberatore sits in the 17th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · PiratesPirates: 0.345 TB/PAMatthew Liberatore: 0.399 TB/PA allowed (594 PA)High confidence
Can Braxton Ashcraft limit Cardinals' power?
Cardinals rank in the 19th percentile in extra-base production, while Braxton Ashcraft sits in the 45th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Braxton AshcraftCardinals: 0.328 TB/PABraxton Ashcraft: 0.346 TB/PA allowed (642 PA)High confidence
How do Pirates handle left-handers?
Pirates have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.320 vs. 0.345 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Matthew Liberatorevs left-handers: 0.320 TB/PA (1688 PA)overall: 0.345 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Matthew Liberatore miss enough bats?
Matthew Liberatore strikes hitters out at a 22.2% clip (58th percentile); Pirates carry a 23.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · PiratesMatthew Liberatore: 22.2% K ratePirates: 23.6% K rateHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Braxton Ashcraft
Braxton Ashcraft
Pittsburgh Pirates · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.9/start
Hits allowed4.9/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
25% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Matthew Liberatore
Matthew Liberatore
St. Louis Cardinals · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts6.2/start
Hits allowed5.6/start
6+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
22% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Bryan Torres
Bryan Torres
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.400 hit rate · 0.400 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is up 115% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 13%.
Nathan Church
Nathan Church
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.281 hit rate · 0.469 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2519 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
Jared Triolo
Jared Triolo
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.281 hit rate · 0.281 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L107 / 10L2512 / 255-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 37% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
Jacob Gonzalez
Jacob Gonzalez
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.083 hit rate · 0.083 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 79% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 25%.
Jake Mangum
Jake Mangum
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.129 hit rate · 0.161 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 35%.
Spencer Horwitz
Spencer Horwitz
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.158 hit rate · 0.158 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 24%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

72
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
67
Ivan Herrera
Ivan Herrera
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
63
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 2 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
63
Nathan Church
Nathan Church
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 7th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Pirates bring more power.

Early edge Pirates Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 52nd percentile in combined suppression.
  • Pirates are trending down; Cardinals are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Is Bryan Torres the one to watch?
Bryan Torres enters as Cardinals' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 115% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 13%.
0.400 hit rate · 0.400 TB/PA · 0.186 hit rate · 0.318 TB/PA
Can Jacob Gonzalez snap out of it?
Jacob Gonzalez has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 79% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 25%.
0.083 hit rate · 0.083 TB/PA · 0.197 hit rate · 0.395 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-08-30, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.