San Diego PadresOffense cooling lately
LHP Robbie Ray · Balanced starter
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Tampa Bay RaysOffense cooling lately
RHP Drew Rasmussen · High-strikeout arm · plus control
Team Identity
San Diego Padres
Season-to-date, 136 games, 5,262 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerBelow Avg28
ContactBelow Avg36
Plate DisciplineAverage60
SpeedAbove Avg78
RISPAverage59
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 6% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Tampa Bay Rays
Season-to-date, 135 games, 5,317 PA.
A contact-oriented, opportunistic offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerBelow Avg31
ContactElite97
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg32
SpeedAbove Avg67
RISPAbove Avg77
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 16% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Rays bring the more contact-oriented profile, while Padres lean on being aggressive.
Swing Factor
Robbie Ray strikes hitters out at a 19.4% clip (35th percentile); Rays carry a 17.6% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Padres are trending down and Rays are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Robbie Ray miss enough bats?
Robbie Ray strikes hitters out at a 19.4% clip (35th percentile); Rays carry a 17.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · RaysRobbie Ray: 19.4% K rateRays: 17.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Drew Rasmussen limit Padres' power?
Padres rank in the 28th percentile in extra-base production, while Drew Rasmussen sits in the 81st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Drew RasmussenPadres: 0.329 TB/PADrew Rasmussen: 0.279 TB/PA allowed (577 PA)High confidence
Can Drew Rasmussen miss enough bats?
Drew Rasmussen strikes hitters out at a 24.8% clip (74th percentile); Padres carry a 20.8% strikeout rate.
Edge · Drew RasmussenDrew Rasmussen: 24.8% K ratePadres: 20.8% K rateHigh confidence
Can Robbie Ray limit Rays' power?
Rays rank in the 31st percentile in extra-base production, while Robbie Ray sits in the 61st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Robbie RayRays: 0.344 TB/PARobbie Ray: 0.314 TB/PA allowed (630 PA)High confidence
How do Rays handle left-handers?
Rays have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.319 vs. 0.344 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Robbie Rayvs left-handers: 0.319 TB/PA (1622 PA)overall: 0.344 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Robbie Ray
San Diego Padres · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.5/start
Hits allowed4.8/start
5 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
19% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Drew Rasmussen
Tampa Bay Rays · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.9/start
Hits allowed4.4/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 68+ Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
25% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Fernando Tatis Jr.
San Diego Padres · 0.326 hit rate · 0.652 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 80% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Freddy Fermin
San Diego Padres · 0.250 hit rate · 0.300 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2518 / 25
Hit rate is up 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
Luis Campusano
San Diego Padres · 0.050 hit rate · 0.050 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 88% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 30%.
Richie Palacios
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.036 hit rate · 0.071 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
Hit rate is down 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 7 games.
Luis Rengifo
San Diego Padres · 0.152 hit rate · 0.182 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
81
Fernando Tatis Jr.
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
76
Junior Caminero
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Yandy Diaz
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Chandler Simpson
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
71
Ty France
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
68
Jake Cronenworth
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
Expected Game Shape
Starter-drivenModerate confidence
Runs may be at a premium if the starters hold form. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Rays Driver Pitching and command Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 65th percentile in combined suppression.
- Padres are trending down; Rays are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Can Padres handle Drew Rasmussen's strikeout stuff?
Padres have been a below-average contact team while Drew Rasmussen misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Padres contact percentile: 36
Can Luis Campusano snap out of it?
Luis Campusano has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 88% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 30%.
0.050 hit rate · 0.050 TB/PA · 0.247 hit rate · 0.407 TB/PA
Is Fernando Tatis Jr. the one to watch?
Fernando Tatis Jr. enters as Padres' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 80% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
0.326 hit rate · 0.652 TB/PA · 0.241 hit rate · 0.363 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-08-30, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.