Seattle MarinersOffense cooling lately
Kade Anderson
@
Toronto Blue JaysBats heating up
RHP José Soriano · Balanced starter
Team Identity
Seattle Mariners
Season-to-date, 135 games, 5,203 PA.
A below-league-average offense across most categories this season. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerWell Below23
ContactWell Below15
Plate DisciplineAverage48
SpeedAverage48
RISPWell Below12
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 14% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Toronto Blue Jays
Season-to-date, 136 games, 5,185 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below22
ContactAbove Avg75
Plate DisciplineWell Below14
SpeedAverage50
RISPWell Below19
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 27% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Blue Jays' offense is defined by being contact-oriented, and this game tests whether Mariners can match it.
Swing Factor
Mariners rank in the 23rd percentile in extra-base production, while José Soriano sits in the 78th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Mariners are trending down and Blue Jays are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can José Soriano limit Mariners' power?
Mariners rank in the 23rd percentile in extra-base production, while José Soriano sits in the 78th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · José SorianoMariners: 0.320 TB/PAJosé Soriano: 0.282 TB/PA allowed (616 PA)High confidence
Can José Soriano miss enough bats?
José Soriano strikes hitters out at a 22.9% clip (61st percentile); Mariners carry a 22.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · José SorianoJosé Soriano: 22.9% K rateMariners: 22.4% K rateHigh confidence
How do Mariners handle right-handers?
Mariners have produced better against right-handers this season (0.337 vs. 0.320 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Marinersvs right-handers: 0.337 TB/PA (3551 PA)overall: 0.320 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can José Soriano command the strike zone?
Mariners walk in 8.7% of trips; José Soriano allows walks at a fairly typical rate (10.6%).
Edge · José SorianoMariners: 8.7% walk rateJosé Soriano: 10.6% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Jose Soriano
Toronto Blue Jays · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.9/start
Hits allowed4.8/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
George Springer
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.457 hit rate · 0.714 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2516 / 253-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 134% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
Cal Raleigh
Seattle Mariners · 0.184 hit rate · 0.579 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 131% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 26%.
Brendan Donovan
Seattle Mariners · 0.333 hit rate · 0.429 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 254-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 4 games.
Julio Rodriguez
Seattle Mariners · 0.136 hit rate · 0.205 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2518 / 25
On-base rate is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 36%.
Cole Young
Seattle Mariners · 0.079 hit rate · 0.184 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2512 / 25
Hit rate is down 65% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 24%.
Weston Wilson
Seattle Mariners · 0.176 hit rate · 0.235 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is down 35% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 53%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
83
Brett Bateman
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
77
Josh Naylor
1+ Hit
Seattle Mariners
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
75
Brendan Donovan
1+ Hit
Seattle Mariners
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
75
Dominic Canzone
1+ Hit
Seattle Mariners
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
72
Alejandro Kirk
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
69
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Blue Jays bring stronger recent momentum.
Early edge Blue Jays Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Elevated
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Mariners are trending down; Blue Jays are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Mariners handle José Soriano's strikeout stuff?
Mariners have been a below-average contact team while José Soriano misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Mariners contact percentile: 15
Is George Springer the one to watch?
George Springer enters as Blue Jays' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 134% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
0.457 hit rate · 0.714 TB/PA · 0.196 hit rate · 0.328 TB/PA
Can Julio Rodriguez snap out of it?
Julio Rodriguez has cooled off. On-base rate is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 36%.
0.136 hit rate · 0.205 TB/PA · 0.226 hit rate · 0.374 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-08-29, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.